Yesterday, the stock market indices in both markets initially declined in the morning, with the Shanghai Composite Index approaching 3,200 points during the session, then rebounded and rose across the board in the afternoon. By the close, the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 2.07% to 3,284.32 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 2.65% to 10,327.4 points, the ChiNext Index gained 2.6% to 2,155.4 points, the STAR 50 Index surged by approximately 3%, and the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 Index jumped by 6.6%; the combined turnover of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets was 1.6494 trillion yuan, an increase of about 62.2 billion yuan from the previous day. In terms of industries, sectors such as semiconductors, construction, real estate, banking, and building materials strengthened, while concepts like HarmonyOS, information technology innovation, data elements, and commercial spaceflight were active, and the securities sector stopped falling and rebounded in the afternoon.

East Wu Securities stated that in the short term, the expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut has receded, and the domestic policy pace may slow down, making it highly likely that market volatility will decrease. Overseas, firstly, the September non-farm employment data released during the National Day holiday greatly exceeded expectations, and the upward trend in wage growth indicates that the U.S. labor market is stronger than expected; secondly, the U.S. CPI data last Thursday slightly exceeded expectations, with core inflation still showing strong stickiness, squeezing the Federal Reserve's room for rate cuts. Therefore, additional domestic policy measures can still be anticipated in the short term, but the pace may slow down. Coupled with recent high-level warnings about stock market risks and a relatively sufficient correction, the market is expected to gradually return to rationality, with the amplitude of fluctuations converging.

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Today's Investment Opportunities Analysis

Short-term supply-demand gap difficult to resolve, alumina is expected to remain strong

According to Bloomberg news, Emirates Global Aluminum (EGA) stated that its bauxite exports have been suspended by Guinean customs and is seeking clarification from customs; EGA indicated that its alumina refinery in Abu Dhabi is still operating normally and expects production not to be affected by the export suspension. According to EGA's official website, its subsidiary, Guinea Alumina Corporation, has an annual bauxite production capacity of 12 million tons, and the AlTaweelah alumina plant produces 2 million tons of alumina annually. The news of supply disruption catalyzed the SHFE alumina futures price to reach a historical high of 4,818 yuan/ton on October 14, up 46.1% from the beginning of the year, leading the increase among base metal futures.

CITIC Securities pointed out that looking ahead, in terms of supply, it is difficult to have substantial increases in the resumption of bauxite production in Shanxi and Henan within the year, bauxite shipments are limited during the rainy season in Guinea, and there is no news on Indonesia's quota exports, so it is expected that the supply of bauxite will remain tight.受限于此，我国的氧化铝复产及投产亦将受阻。据ALD，2024年520万吨拟投氧化铝产能中仅博赛及华昇合计160万吨产能年底能够形成少量产量。需求而言，年内云南地区电力形势明显改善，枯水季减产预期偏弱，氧化铝需求料难有大幅回落。叠加交易所、港口和铝企氧化铝库存处于历史低位，2025年二季度新投氧化铝项目集中放量之前供需缺口短期难以实质缓解，后续价格将维持强势。

Regarding demand, the electricity situation in Yunnan has significantly improved within the year, and the expectation of reduced production during the dry season is relatively weak, so it is expected that the demand for alumina will not drop significantly. Coupled with the historical low levels of alumina inventory at exchanges, ports, and aluminum companies, the supply-demand gap is difficult to substantially alleviate in the short term before the concentrated release of new alumina projects in the second quarter of 2025, and subsequent prices will remain strong.

Fiscal efforts to resolve debt, construction companies welcome development opportunities

At the press conference on October 12 by the State Council Information Office, the Minister of Finance stated that China plans to increase the debt limit in one go to replace the existing implicit debt of local governments and to increase efforts to support local governments in resolving debt risks.

CITIC Securities stated that considering the unprecedented strength of this fiscal counter-cyclical effort, after the financial situation of local governments improves, it is expected to continue to increase the recovery of receivables from construction companies in the short term, thereby bringing continuous repair to corporate statements. In the long term, as local finances improve, more resources are expected to be freed up to initiate new infrastructure projects, driving the bottom of industry demand to rise, and bringing a new round of development opportunities for construction companies.

Public data supporting policies are introducedOn October 12th, in earnest implementation of the "Opinions on Accelerating the Development and Utilization of Public Data Resources" and other document requirements issued by the General Office of the CPC Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council, the National Development and Reform Commission, in conjunction with relevant departments, drafted the "Interim Measures for the Registration and Management of Public Data Resources" and is now openly soliciting opinions from society. On the same day, the relevant departments of the National Data Administration researched and drafted the "Public Data Resources Authorized Operation Implementation Standards (Trial)" (Draft for Public Comment). The period for soliciting opinions on both documents is from October 12, 2024, to November 11, 2024.

Wanlian Securities pointed out that as supporting policies for public data continue to be implemented, it is expected to accelerate the construction of standardized systems for the operation and use of public data. It is recommended to pay attention to: 1) the construction and technical support of software platforms for public data registration; 2) the construction of data governance and data security systems; 3) the release of data element value generated by the re-development of public data products and services.

Other news affecting the market:

The photovoltaic industry reaches a consensus on "strengthening industry self-discipline to prevent 'involution-style' vicious competition"

On the evening of the 14th, the China Photovoltaic Industry Association issued a statement saying that recently, the market price of photovoltaic products has continued to decline, and the entire industry has fallen into an irrational competition vicious cycle. To prevent "involution-style" vicious competition and maintain a fair competition order in the photovoltaic market, and to guide the healthy and sustainable development of the industry, the China Photovoltaic Industry Association held a special symposium on preventing industry "involution-style" vicious competition in Shanghai on October 14, 2024. Entrepreneurs and representatives fully communicated and exchanged views on "strengthening industry self-discipline, preventing 'involution-style' vicious competition, strengthening market survival of the fittest mechanism, and smoothing the exit channels for backward and inefficient production capacity," and reached a consensus on the healthy and sustainable development of the industry.

In the first three quarters, China's high-end equipment exports grew by more than 40%

According to the latest data released by the General Administration of Customs, in the first three quarters, China's mechanical and electrical product exports were 11.03 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8%. Among them, high-end equipment exports grew by 43.4% year-on-year, and exports of integrated circuits, automobiles, and home appliances grew by 22%, 22.5%, and 15.5%, respectively.

Shanghai: Accelerate the green transformation of international shipping fuel

On the 14th, Gong Zheng, Deputy Secretary of the Shanghai Municipal Party Committee and Mayor, presided over the executive meeting of the municipal government, calling for the acceleration of the green transformation of international shipping fuel according to the deployment of the municipal party committee; to strengthen the financing support for small and medium-sized enterprises; to enhance the management of construction waste; and to promote the high-level opening up of intellectual property services.

The meeting原则上 agreed with the "Shanghai Municipal Work Plan for Promoting the Green Transformation of International Shipping Fuel" and pointed out that the application of green shipping fuel is related to the development of Shanghai's international shipping center. It is necessary to focus on systematic planning, strengthen forward-looking research, production layout, and facility construction. It is necessary to improve service levels, take the lead in optimizing the "soft environment," provide "one-stop" comprehensive services for global companies, and accelerate the construction of an international green fuel trading center. It is necessary to improve policy rules, deepen systemic innovation, continuously improve the full-process management system for green fuel bunkering, storage, transportation, and trading, and generate more "firsts." Continue to strengthen international cooperation, accelerate the connection of systems, rules, and standards, and better serve global companies.China to Build the World's Largest Low-Altitude Communication Network

The latest data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology shows that the total number of 5G base stations in China has reached 4.042 million, accounting for 32.1% of the total mobile base stations, with the largest network scale in the world; related applications have covered 74 major categories of the national economy. In addition to the large-scale replication of mature 5G applications, the exploration of various new application scenarios has also made low-altitude economy a major focus of the industry. Experts introduce that low-altitude application scenarios require the ground network signals to be covered upwards to a height of several hundred meters. Currently, more than 330 cities in China have launched the latest 5G-A network deployment, which will create the world's largest low-altitude communication network.

Over 20 Provinces Include Assisted Reproduction in Medical Insurance

The Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region Medical Security Bureau recently issued a notice, clearly stating that from October 15th, 10 assisted reproductive medical service items including "ovum retrieval" and 3 additional charge items will be included in the basic medical insurance payment scope to reduce the economic burden on infertile patient families and promote long-term balanced population development. According to statistics, the medical insurance bureaus of Hunan, Sichuan, Shanxi, and Guangdong have recently announced on their official websites that assisted reproduction will be included in medical insurance. So far, more than 20 provinces have included assisted reproductive technology in medical insurance.