In light of the European Union's recent measures to significantly increase tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, reliable sources have revealed that China is considering initiating anti-dumping and countervailing duty investigations on EU dairy and pork products. Industry insiders believe that if China decides to impose export restrictions on European pork, it will undoubtedly cause a severe impact on the entire European industry, and may even trigger a "nightmare" scenario.

Is China brewing a counterattack?

The news that China may launch anti-dumping and countervailing duty investigations on EU dairy and pork has caused quite a stir in the international market. This move is seen as a direct response to the EU's recent imposition of additional tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles.

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As this trade dispute intensifies, many are beginning to worry whether this will lead to the collapse of billions of dollars' worth of orders for the EU.

In the field of international trade, the importance of the Chinese market to many key EU agricultural and livestock exporting countries, led by Spain, France, and the Netherlands, is self-evident.

In 2023 alone, China imported 1.55 million tons of pork from the EU, accounting for more than half of its total imports. Among these pork products, pig offal is particularly important, as it is often not popular among Europeans and relies heavily on exports to realize its value.

It is worth noting that Spain, as the largest pork exporter in Europe, shipped an astonishing 382,000 tons of pork to China in 2023.

Should China indeed adopt anti-dumping policies against these products, Spain would undoubtedly become one of the countries bearing the most severe losses.

Although France and Germany are also important pork exporting countries, considering historical background and market factors, the impact on both countries may be relatively smaller.Faced with such a severe situation, the countermeasures taken by China are undoubtedly seen as targeted and strong responses.

Compared with the usual tariff wars, this kind of targeted counterattack may be more precise, directly hitting the soft spots of the EU.

Among the EU member states, there are different reactions to this incident, but the common concern is that if China continues to use such strategies, it will not be limited to the meat breeding industry. More industries that depend on the Chinese market may also be impacted.

In this fierce trade dispute, both sides are trying to defend their own economic interests, but it is obvious that there is no real winner in any form of trade war.

At present, all parties are closely following the development of the situation, hoping to find a solution that is beneficial to both sides and mutually beneficial.

In this process, understanding the economic and political motives behind each action is crucial for predicting the future trend.

Spain may be the first to plead for mercy.

Spain, as the country with the largest pork exports to China in the world, is undoubtedly extremely worried about possible countermeasures from China.

It is worth noting that its annual sales of pork to the Chinese market are about as high as 1.5 billion US dollars. If this triggers a countermeasure from China, not only will Spain itself be severely affected, but the entire European Union will also face heavy economic pressure.Recently, the Spanish Minister of Industry clearly stated at a press conference that they are well aware of the profound impact of trade wars, and that ultimately, all parties involved will pay a corresponding price. This sounds reasonable, but consider this: where were these voices when the EU decided to impose tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles? Now, facing retaliation, Spain suddenly calls for a "permanently friendly" relationship with China, which is quite a sudden shift.

The Spanish Pork Production and Processing Alliance (INTERPORC) also speaks with one voice, expressing its desire to maintain a good relationship with China. However, looking back, they were silent on the tariff measures and now want to ease tensions, which is somewhat ironic.

Indeed, China does not wish to solve problems through trade wars. China has always insisted on resolving international trade disputes through dialogue and consultation. However, if circumstances force it, and if the actions of other countries infringe upon our rights and interests, our country has the right to use various means to ensure the safety and stability of our own economy.

According to an in-depth analysis by Toennies, the largest meat producer in the Federal Republic of Germany, if China significantly reduces pork imports from Europe, especially Spain, then Spain will have to seek new market spaces. This could likely lead to an oversupply and price drop of pork across Europe, causing serious revenue losses for the industry.

For the EU, this situation undoubtedly serves as a wake-up call, especially for member states whose economic development is highly dependent on the Chinese market. When they imposed trade restrictions on China, they seemingly did not anticipate this day, where once China retaliates, the previously stable market and sources of income would be shaken.

From this incident, it can be seen that the EU often expects China to be compliant in handling international relations, neglecting the principle of equality and mutual benefit. When taking aggressive measures against China, they seem to have forgotten that there are no winners in trade wars.Now, facing potential economic losses, their attitude suddenly softens, hoping to return to the track of friendly consultations.

Such double-standard behavior undoubtedly not only exposes their shortcoming of advancing strategies on the international stage, but also provides ample evidence for people to question their true intentions and credibility today.

Targeted countermeasures by China

The speculation about China's possible countermeasures against the EU is really making a lot of noise. If the EU really continues its own path, recklessly going its own way, it may really fall into a bottomless black hole.

Why do I say that?

Let's look at the pork market. If China really closes the door to the European pork market, those European pork exporters will face big problems.

Because the Chinese market is so large, once they lose this big piece of cake, they have to find other places to sell this pork, and they also have to lower the price to sell, which is a direct economic loss.

Let's talk about Russia, they are also eyeing this big market. Putin is already in action, expanding the domestic pork and beef production capacity, and has signed a food safety agreement with China, ready to go.

If Russia can squeeze into this market, it is undoubtedly a great thing for them, after all, this market is astonishingly large, and the demand has been increasing.Additionally, if the EU's pork is indeed restricted in import, it would also serve as a support for the domestic pork prices in China. Although none of us hope to resolve issues through trade wars, we hope both sides can calm down and have a good discussion.

However, if the other party insists on coming, we are naturally well-prepared.

Ironically, the EU is also being foolish, following the United States' steps in trying to suppress the development of China's electric vehicles, while also making a mess of itself.

History tells us that there has never been a precedent for success in closing the country and refusing innovation; their approach will inevitably fall behind others sooner or later.

As for China, we have various means to respond, from imposing additional tariffs to restricting the export of certain products, ensuring that we can stand firm in trade disputes.

China has shown a very clear target in dealing with these trade issues; we are not shooting without aim but shooting with a target.

In summary, in dealing with this potential trade conflict, China has always been calm and restrained. We sincerely hope that the EU can treat these trade issues rationally and not make decisions that harm others and themselves.

After all, trade wars are not beneficial to anyone, and cooperation and mutual benefit are the outcomes everyone looks forward to. We hope everyone can adjust their mindset and not let momentary impulses affect long-term interests.